Stochastic Modeling of drug production demand
COMMERCIAL STRATEGY
Stochastic modeling of drug demand
Problem & Background
A US biotech company was developing a drug to treat multiple indications within oncology. The company needed help understanding the total amount of drug needed over time for their planned clinical trials and commercial launches.
Our Approach
We forecasted the total patients treated commercially and clinically in each planned indication, calculated the amount of drug needed per month based on total patients treated, treatment duration, etc., within each indication and region, and performed Monte Carlo analysis to understand the full range of demand based on key variables.
Value added
We provided our client with confidence intervals of drug demand based on key clinical and commercial factors.
Qualitatative Market Research & Revenue Forecast
COMMERCIAL STRATEGY
Qualitative primary market research to inform revenue forecast
Problem & Background
An early-stage microbiome company was interested in building an incidence & prevalence-based revenue forecast for their lead program to support upcoming fundraising discussions. Primary market research informed key assumptions for the rare and relatively niche indication in the forecast, including correct patient flow, epidemiology, market share, and pricing.
Our Approach
We interviewed 6 KOLs, 6 payers, and 8 high-volume clinicians to inform our assumptions. Our model included incident and prevalent populations, numerous launch scenarios of competitors, and lastly, utilized Monte Carlo simulations to statistically predict the range of potential revenues based on uncertainties in key variables.
Value added
We were able to provide a detailed commercial business case to our client to present in fundraising efforts.
Ex-US Commercialization Strategy
COMMERCIAL STRATEGY
Ex-US commercialization strategy for an oncology-focused US biotech
Problem & Background
A clinical-stage oncology company was seeking to develop a commercialization strategy for their lead product outside the US. The company sought to understand and prioritize commercial opportunities in 7 ex-US markets.
Our Approach
We leveraged primary and secondary market research to analyze and prioritize each of the 7 markets in Europe and Asia. We conducted interviews with commercial executives from each region and reviewed key literature, news, databases, and comparable companies to inform peak-year sales forecasts and prioritization framework for each market.
Value added
We painted a detailed picture of the commercial risks and rewards involved in each ex-US market. Our findings informed launch order and partnering recommendations in each market, and the investment needed to pursue each strategic option.
Before/after storytelling slides
CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT
Storytelling to empower partnering, fundraising, and large collaborations
Problem & Background
We serve many clients by creatively and collaboratively crafting strategic stories for communication to investors, board of directors, internal teams, and external partners.
Our Approach
We use paid industry databases, graphing applications, and biology-specific graphic software to create easy to follow slide decks while still honoring the complexity of the stories.
Value added
Our storytelling work has contributed to the success of our clients with $25B in BD/M&A, $700M in private financing, and $1.2B in public IPO financing.
CEO/BoD storytelling slides
CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT
Strategic storytelling for C-suites and Board of Directors.
Problem & Background
After we complete strategic projects, many clients present the findings to their CEOs and BoDs. These slides need to highlight the approach, main findings, and strategic implications -- all supported by details in the appendix, but not bogging down the clarity of insights and recommendations.
Our Approach
We start with storytelling, decision making, and persuasion best practices. We add empathy and client context. We align with our clients as to how much persuasion or controversy a particular recommendation may cause. We use world-class designers to visually make the slides match the client's expectations and/or style guide.
Value added
Our storytelling work has been used by clients making recommendations to CEOs and Boards that matter, such as pipeline investments/divestments, BD/M&A roadmaps, fundraising and/or partnering goals, and other growth strategy initiatives.
Strategic roadmap support
CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT
BD/M&A strategic roadmap, search, evaluation, and due diligence support
Problem & Background
Our client needed to accelerate BD/M&A activity to expand their portfolio and hit growth targets. They needed support building strategic alignment with executives, identifying, evaluating, and prioritizing potential deal targets and diseases, and building investment these (I.e., mini-TPPs) for each priority disease.
Our Approach
Collaboratively, we built approaches that would best meet the client's needs. We were sensitive to building alignment among executives and senior leadership. We then applied hard-nosed strategic analysis to scour the potential target landscape.
Value added
Over 12 months, our flexible, nimble, and collaborative work built alignment, evaluated numerous targets under due diligence, and supported a deal in IBD with a Top 20 Pharma partner.
Indication prioritization for single asset in oncology
R&D / PORTFOLIO
Indication prioritization for single asset
Problem & Background
A large pharmaceutical company with a small molecule program needed to identify and prioritize >15 oncology indications to invest in as line extensions. Many of the indications were outside their organizational expertise.
Our Approach
We developed concise and informative disease overviews, TPPs, competitive landscapes, revenue forecasts, and risk-adjusted NPVs. We built a customized prioritization framework with qualitative and quantitative parameters -- spanning commercial, R&D, and corporate drivers -- to rank indications with a clear scoring rationale.
Value added
As a result of our work, the client used the prioritization to guide investment in the top 3 indications from our collaborative analysis.
Platform Strategy/Indication Prioritization
R&D / PORTFOLIO
Indication prioritization for platform-driven biotech
Problem & Background
A biotech with an innovative platform needed help identifying rare diseases best suited for its technology, then evaluating those diseases in an apples-to-apples, rigorous manner.
Our Approach
We deployed a custom filter to narrow a list of 20+ diseases to the top 10 with greatest potential. We created a customized prioritization framework evaluating commercial, R&D, and corporate factors using secondary research and custom primary market research with KOLs.
Value added
Our collaborative analysis led to the client selecting our top recommended indications for further investment. Our analysis was used directly in Board and investor presentations to share their clarified corporate strategy.
Imaging/clinical endpoint evaluation
R&D / Neurology / CNS
Drug development innovation through the use of novel imaging and AI/ML biomarkers in a neurology / CNS indication
Problem & Background
A biotech that had developed a novel, first-in-class therapeutic was seeking assistance in identifying, evaluating, and prioritizing novel imaging biomarkers to demonstrate the clinical benefits of their therapeutic vs. competition. The disease was poorly understood, leaving the door open for innovation with endpoints.
Our Approach
Together with the client, internal and KOL experts, and secondary research, we identified and/or created 80+ feasible, compelling digital biomarker endpoints, some of them involving groundbreaking technology. We created a robust prioritization process to systematically evaluate them in a stepwise fashion.
Value added
Our collaborative output was endorsed by the lifecycle team and chief medical officer. Some recommended endpoints were implemented within weeks to the ongoing trial with our direct interaction with CROs. Other endpoints were prioritized for the upcoming pivotal trial.